Оценка рисков недостижения целевых значений показателей интеллектуального капитала организации на основе нечеткой модели
Аннотация
Процессы формирования и развития интеллектуального капитала в цифровой экономике представляют собой слабоструктурированные процессы, протекающие в условиях значительного увеличения скорости и непредсказуемости изменений во внешней среде. Это крайне затрудняет возможность использования предыдущего опыта и вероятностных прогнозов при оценке рисков недостижения стратегических целей по развитию интеллектуального капитала организации. При этом нежелательные отклонения при достижении этих целей могут приводить к значительным негативным последствиям. В этой связи возникает необходимость разработки соответствующих нечетких методов и моделей, что обусловливает актуальность настоящей работы. Цель данного исследования состояла в разработке нечеткого метода оценки рисков недостижения стратегических целей организации в сфере развития интеллектуального капитала. В основе метода лежит разработанная авторами нечеткая модель, позволяющая учитывать толерантность к неопределенности лица, принимающего решения. Апробация метода на примере конкретной организации показала возможность его практической применимости. Приведены количественные оценки и качественные интерпретации уровней рисков недостижения целевых показателей по развитию интеллектуального капитала организации (крупного регионального университета).
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